Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3ac…f23d weather 572 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$868 · open +$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate39%179W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day72.0pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$7,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$554
7 days−$251
14 days−$536
30 days−$968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 34% −$15
other 29% +$510
sports 17% −$328
politics 12% −$90
crypto 4% −$81
finance 2% −$60
world 2% −$66
tech 1% +$24
economics 0% −$17
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -10.3% -18.9% 35% 22% -14.5%
≤30d 344 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 24% -16.8%
≤90d 454 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 24% -14.7%
all 454 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 24% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 24% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 18% -22.9%
15% -28.6% 15% -30.3%
20% -35.6% 12% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$7,909
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$197
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses179 / 275
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions317
Markets (closed)454 / 572
History coverage44d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 317 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 11¢ 77¢ $50 $351 +$301 (+601%)
Will STRC market cap hit $12B by June 30? No 12¢ 92¢ $23 $177 +$154 (+665%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $99 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $99 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? Yes 49¢ 81¢ $55 $91 +$37 (+67%)
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $77 $88 +$11 (+15%)
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? Yes 65¢ 92¢ $59 $84 +$25 (+43%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 25¢ 81¢ $26 $83 +$57 (+222%)
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 67¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+63%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 88¢ 94¢ $76 $81 +$5 (+6%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 23¢ 62¢ $28 $76 +$47 (+167%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 15¢ 48¢ $24 $75 +$52 (+218%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $53 $64 +$11 (+21%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $38 $64 +$26 (+70%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 21¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 11¢ 26¢ $24 $59 +$35 (+144%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 36¢ 82¢ $25 $57 +$32 (+129%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 16¢ 41¢ $22 $57 +$35 (+156%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $25 $55 +$30 (+119%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 78¢ 82¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 81¢ 100¢ $43 $52 +$10 (+23%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 71¢ 74¢ $49 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 14 $23 −$21 -90%
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $28 −$41 -149%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of t Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary Jun 14 $36 −$41 -114%
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $3B in 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +144%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Joaquin Panichelli be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 20 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will David Roth be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West V Jun 14 $67 −$67 -101%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Jun 14 $1 −$20 -2702%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will David Scott be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +175%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $37 +$14 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 14 $0 $0 -15%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $48 −$6 -12%
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $13 −$4 -29%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$4 -30%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $25 +$22 +89%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +20%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Tim Ream be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $9 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? SELL No 95¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? SELL No 95¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? SELL No 96¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $8 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 78¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $0 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her SELL Yes 75¢ $27 2h
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $17 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 2¢ $7 4h
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $0 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,908.72 · official $7,907.77 (match) · 3500 history records