Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf3ad…98d4 other 41 markets active 1d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$310 (+9%) realized +$305 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%23W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days+$287
14 days+$286
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$312
crypto 3% −$16
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +35.2% +22.3% 92% 83% +15.8%
≤30d 36 +7.6% -2.6% 64% 58% -0.7%
≤90d 36 +7.6% -2.6% 64% 58% -0.7%
all 36 +7.6% -2.6% 64% 58% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 58% -0.7%
10% -11.9% 50% -10.2%
15% -20.5% 44% -18.9%
20% -28.3% 33% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$77 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses23 / 13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage12d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$126 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$424 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +101%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 26h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 26h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 26h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 11d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 11d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 11d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.10 · official $505.10 (match) · 77 history records