Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3b0…7d6f sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$193 (-20%) realized −$187 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-51.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -65.4%
≤30d 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -65.4%
≤90d 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -65.4%
all 4 -46.6% -51.7% 25% 25% -65.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.7% 25% -65.4%
10% -56.3% 25% -68.7%
15% -60.5% 25% -71.7%
20% -64.4% 25% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$197 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized−$187
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $242 $235 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $255 −$250 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $200 −$197 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $129 +$147 +114%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $148 −$145 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $245 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $255 2h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $200 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $276 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 35¢ $148 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $129 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.43 · official $112.52 · 6 history records