Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:59:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3b7…5dd1 crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$215 (+1%) realized +$215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate93%43W / 3L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$208
finance 11% +$7
world 11% +$10
economics 8% −$61
other 7% +$46
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 7 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 46 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 7% -8.8%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,008) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$69 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.11 per $1 lost it wins $4.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized+$215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses43 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage266d
Avg bet$615
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $675 $674 −$1 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $225 $226 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1,008 +$5 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $2,147 +$5 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 08 $465 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? May 02 $690 +$15 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 15 $396 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 30 $861 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 29 $858 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $1,106 +$8 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? Mar 23 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 18 $211 +$6 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Mar 04 $593 +$4 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of February Mar 04 $265 +$3 +1%
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. James Madison Dukes Feb 27 $10 $0 +3%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Kings vs. Rockets Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 26 $398 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 26 $437 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Feb 12 $830 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $202 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jan 01 $1,034 +$22 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $195 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $932 +$102 +11%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 05 $387 +$16 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 15 $832 +$17 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $152 −$69 -45%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Nov 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on November 3? Nov 04 $779 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 2? Nov 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 02 $816 +$4 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $992 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 25? Oct 26 $1,151 +$2 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 22 $1,144 +$7 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.40 on October 15? Oct 16 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.40 on October 14? Oct 15 $1,142 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.40 on October 13? Oct 14 $1,141 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 October 6-12? Oct 13 $1,140 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $3.10 and $3.20 on October 12? Oct 12 $1,138 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on October 11? Oct 12 $736 +$1 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Oct 11 $629 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 10? Oct 11 $735 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on October 8? Oct 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 03 $233 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1? Oct 02 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 1? Oct 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $675 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $127 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $123 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $124 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $226 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $113 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $112 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $112 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $896 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $896 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $886 47d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $706 52d
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $690 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? SELL No 100¢ $5 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? SELL No 100¢ $1 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? SELL No 100¢ $3 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? SELL No 100¢ $5 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? SELL No 100¢ $278 67d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? SELL No 98¢ $397 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 98¢ $396 77d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? BUY No 99¢ $465 77d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $81 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $5 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $900.18 · official $900.18 (match) · 163 history records