Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf3b9…57ec crypto 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$735 (-3%) realized −$735 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%101W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$313
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$847
finance 9% +$203
tech 8% +$34
sports 5% −$142
world 2% +$142
economics 1% −$378
politics 1% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 33% -7.8%
≤30d 9 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 33% -7.8%
≤90d 64 -14.3% -22.5% 45% 42% -16.0%
all 187 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 51% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 51% -13.3%
10% -21.7% 43% -21.6%
15% -29.3% 37% -29.1%
20% -36.2% 35% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$90 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$735
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses101 / 86
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage231d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 187 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $235 −$126 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $587 −$170 -29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2 Jun 20 $304 +$155 +51%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $204 −$42 -20%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $146 +$109 +74%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $407 −$237 -58%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $2,027 −$23 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,994 +$441 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 06 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 05 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 05 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 03 $200 −$193 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 03 $500 +$142 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 01 $100 +$73 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 30 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 30 $30 −$30 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $268 −$238 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 29? Mar 29 $155 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$49 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11PM ET Mar 29 $60 +$41 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$59 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 29 $60 +$67 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$73 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 29 $60 +$67 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10PM ET Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 29 $50 +$78 +155%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 29 $300 −$22 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 29 $120 −$109 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 29 $200 −$183 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$88 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$91 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$106 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$43 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 28 $100 +$42 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 28 $100 −$69 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Mar 28 $200 −$194 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 28 $200 −$190 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 28 $140 +$89 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 28 $200 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 28 $200 +$182 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $32 5m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $57 5m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $2 5m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $2 5m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $2 5m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $14 5m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $89 19m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $11 19m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $62 19m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 19m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $62 19m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $193 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $215 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $187 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2 SELL 93¢ $459 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 26¢ $162 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $204 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records