Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf3ba…38a7 sports 69 markets active 6d ago coverage 633d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-15%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$60
crypto 30% −$62
other 15% +$17
politics 6% +$28
world 4% −$13
economics 4% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 69 -13.6% -21.8% 41% 36% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 36% -22.8%
10% -29.3% 35% -30.2%
15% -36.1% 33% -37.0%
20% -42.4% 28% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

633d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage633d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $26 +$8 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks May 31 $10 +$6 +59%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder May 24 $24 +$9 +37%
Mavericks vs. Kings May 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Apr 17 $10 +$6 +56%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Apr 17 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Apr 17 $16 +$18 +108%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Feb 04 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Jan 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Jan 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana hit $270 in December? Jan 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? Jan 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 06 $8 +$5 +65%
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? Dec 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in December? Dec 16 $13 +$26 +203%
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? Dec 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k by Sunday? Dec 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 06 $20 +$35 +174%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Dec 03 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Bills win the AFC East? Dec 02 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Malik Nabers win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Dec 01 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Nov 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 in November? Nov 25 $10 +$27 +270%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 23 $10 +$19 +194%
Will the Minnesota Lynx win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Nov 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Nov 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $20 +$22 +110%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Oct 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will $BTC reach 70k before October? Oct 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Giants vs. Cowboys Sep 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Las Vegas Aces win the 2024 WNBA Finals? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $60,000 on October 1? Sep 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 6d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 16¢ $5 365d
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 365d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 89¢ $34 365d
Knicks vs. Pacers BUY Knicks 38¢ $16 382d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? BUY No 55¢ $10 384d
Pacers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 63¢ $10 384d
Timberwolves vs. Thunder BUY Timberwolves 25¢ $13 384d
Timberwolves vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 73¢ $24 391d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 391d
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 426d
Mavericks vs. Kings BUY Kings 68¢ $19 426d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 527d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 545d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 545d
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2024? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 548d
Will Solana hit $270 in December? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 548d
Ethereum above $3,900 on December 20? BUY Yes 63¢ $11 548d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 548d
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 553d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? BUY No 59¢ $5 553d
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 553d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? BUY No 64¢ $3 557d
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k by Sunday? BUY No 20¢ $11 557d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 557d
Ethereum all time high in 2024? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 557d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records