Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3c0…e423
sports · 11 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$96
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 6 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 97¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Iva Jovic 72¢ 60¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $18 +$1 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $36 −$3 -8%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$1 -8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% −$4
crypto 31% $0
world 4% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Iva Jovic 72¢ $19 2m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova SELL Amanda Anisimova 29¢ $13 4m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 44¢ $20 12m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 43¢ $22 45m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 40¢ $10 50m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 67¢ $18 57m
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Federico Cina 92¢ $18 57m
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 33¢ $18 57m
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz SELL Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 86¢ $17 1h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 86¢ $18 1h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 97¢ $17 1h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 83¢ $19 1h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 77¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $17 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $16 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $18 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $17 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
all 5 -2.1% -11.4% 20% 0% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 0% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 0% -20.7%
15% -27.6% 0% -28.4%
20% -34.7% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.66 · official $95.66 (match) · 24 history records