Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:31:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3c7…3d9c world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 368d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$90
sports 3% +$10
other 2% −$30
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +22.1% +10.5% 50% 50% +7.6%
≤30d 6 +22.1% +10.5% 50% 50% +7.6%
≤90d 6 +22.1% +10.5% 50% 50% +7.6%
all 43 -1.8% -11.1% 47% 42% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 42% -10.5%
10% -19.6% 37% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 33% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$59 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

368d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage368d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Norway 36¢ 36¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 04 $96 +$104 +108%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? Jan 17 $52 −$32 -60%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 17 $68 −$44 -65%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $160 −$108 -67%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $232 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 17 $35 +$13 +37%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Jan 17 $99 −$24 -24%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $53 −$33 -62%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $25 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $42 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026? Jan 10 $415 −$392 -94%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $219 +$564 +258%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 8, 2026? Jan 08 $18 +$12 +67%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026? Jan 07 $34 +$16 +45%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026? Jan 05 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026? Jan 04 $6 +$9 +144%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Dec 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $106 −$71 -67%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August? Jun 24 $25 −$3 -12%
Iran strike on Qatar today? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 29? Jun 23 $93 −$76 -82%
Israel strike on Iran on June 30? Jun 23 $85 −$71 -84%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 23 $175 −$120 -69%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 23 $301 −$154 -51%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 23 $87 −$24 -28%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35m and 39.9m views? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 21 $611 +$111 +18%
Israel strike on Iran on June 20? Jun 19 $100 +$44 +44%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 17 $174 +$81 +46%
Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday? Jun 16 $47 −$15 -33%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$14 +28%
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June? Jun 14 $50 +$50 +100%
Israel military action against Iraq by Friday? Jun 13 $53 +$15 +29%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 13 $75 +$46 +61%
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July? Jun 13 $39 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $37 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 10h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $10 44h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 149d
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 149d
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 150d
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 150d
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 150d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $22 150d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 150d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 150d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 150d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 150d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 150d
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 150d
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 150d
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $37 150d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $25 150d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 152d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 152d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 153d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.81 · official $84.81 (match) · 191 history records