Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3ca…0519 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 27L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$4
other 20% $0
politics 18% $0
crypto 9% +$1
sports 6% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.0% -6.8% 25% 25% -7.2%
≤30d 12 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 8% -8.6%
≤90d 12 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 8% -8.6%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage267d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $33 +$4 +12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $89 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 13? Oct 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Oct 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $20 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 08 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Oct 07 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 02 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $26 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $11 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $33 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $47 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $47 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $7 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $17 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $9 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $47 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records