Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3ca…60ae
world · 300 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$304 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,124 · open +$62
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,304
Realized+$2,124
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses196 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions35
Markets (closed)265 / 300
History coverage90d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 35 History 265 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$609
7 days+$741
14 days+$1,217
30 days+$2,010
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $164 $167 +$3 (+2%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? No 92¢ 95¢ $130 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $102 $113 +$11 (+11%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$2 (+2%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 85¢ 95¢ $85 $95 +$10 (+12%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 90¢ $86 $90 +$4 (+5%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 85¢ 90¢ $85 $90 +$4 (+5%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 76¢ 80¢ $76 $80 +$4 (+6%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 70¢ 77¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 60¢ $67 $60 −$8 (-11%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 57¢ $49 $58 +$9 (+17%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40¢ 50¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 80¢ 81¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 88¢ 97¢ $44 $49 +$4 (+10%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-21%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%? No 96¢ 99¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+183%)
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $791 +$21 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $548 +$9 +2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $2,704 +$45 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,227 −$8 -1%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $75 +$51 +68%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 13 $8,109 +$401 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $313 +$14 +4%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $80 +$12 +15%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 5.2% and 5.5%? Jun 13 $372 +$30 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $345 +$33 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $151 −$41 -27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $196 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $45 +$4 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$26 +13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $297 +$25 +8%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $33 −$13 -39%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $7,113 +$79 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $74 +$6 +9%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $262 +$33 +13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $205 −$4 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $69 −$1 -2%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $117 +$5 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $65 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $6,554 +$440 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $52 −$8 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $1,232 +$34 +3%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%? Jun 06 $52 −$14 -27%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$2 -33%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $27 +$4 +15%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $450 +$34 +8%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 01 $8 $0 +5%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $164 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 −$2 -13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $16 −$2 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,681 +$88 +5%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 30 $97 −$3 -3%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 30 $330 −$18 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $408 −$31 -8%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? May 29 $50 −$6 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $484 −$82 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $256 +$120 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $200 +$16 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $185 +$25 +14%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $563 +$95 +17%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $60 +$19 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 28 $106 +$14 +13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $97 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% +$1,052
other 25% +$345
politics 13% +$15
economics 11% +$680
finance 7% −$2
crypto 4% +$201
sports 2% +$70
weather 1% −$250
tech 0% +$74
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $157 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $74 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 84¢ $10 1h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? SELL No 82¢ $33 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $497 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $83 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $120 1h
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? BUY No 80¢ $23 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $86 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $171 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $118 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $124 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $181 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $124 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $170 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $181 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $86 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $22 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 7h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 98¢ $97 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $149 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.9% -5.1% 79% 21% -6.7%
≤30d 85 +2.4% -7.3% 74% 19% -6.6%
≤90d 265 +0.6% -8.9% 74% 14% -7.9%
all 265 +0.6% -8.9% 74% 14% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 14% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 6% -16.7%
15% -25.6% 3% -24.7%
20% -32.9% 1% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,304.28 · official $1,304.21 (match) · 3500 history records