Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F3 0xf3cc…e049 sports 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$165 (+4%) realized +$157 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%63W / 62L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$230
14 days−$137
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$46
world 13% +$170
finance 0% +$7
politics 0% +$9
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.6% -16.4% 60% 60% -34.5%
≤30d 44 +9.6% -0.8% 61% 61% -5.5%
≤90d 125 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -6.2%
all 125 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 50% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 50% -6.2%
10% -26.0% 46% -15.2%
15% -33.2% 38% -23.4%
20% -39.7% 24% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$537
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses63 / 62
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)125 / 128
History coverage150d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 57¢ 56¢ $499 $495 −$4 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 99¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 51¢ 80¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $151 +$49 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $46 −$30 -66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $71 +$22 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$14 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$12 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$14 +140%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$15 +76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $15 +$12 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 07 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 02 $20 +$10 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $100 +$49 +49%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will a team from England be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $200 +$53 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $51 +$166 +325%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $111 +$69 +62%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 57¢ $505 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $151 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $303 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 36¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $71 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 22¢ $31 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $30 8d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 38¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 73¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $20 12d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 41¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $10 13d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 55¢ $15 13d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 43¢ $10 13d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 73¢ $20 14d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY FlyQuest 40¢ $10 14d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 53¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $536.96 · official $537.05 (match) · 246 history records