trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 34¢ | $6 | $7 | +$1 (+10%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 30¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+22%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 14¢ | $4 | $3 | −$1 (-24%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $4 | $0 | −$4 (-100%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | Jun 11 | $8 | +$2 | +27% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | Jun 08 | $9 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? | Jun 07 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Jun 05 | $3 | +$7 | +271% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Jun 03 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | Jun 03 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | May 29 | $4 | +$6 | +152% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | May 27 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | May 27 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | May 24 | $7 | −$2 | -24% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? | May 23 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 22 | $4 | +$6 | +185% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 22 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 21 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 21 | $4 | −$4 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 19? | May 17 | $3 | +$1 | +20% |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 17? | May 15 | $7 | $0 | +5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +18.1% | +6.9% | 100% | 50% | +6.3% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 47% | 35% | -0.9% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 47% | 35% | -0.9% |
| all | 17 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 47% | 35% | -0.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.8% | 35% | -0.9% |
| 10% | -15.7% | 24% | -10.4% |
| 15% | -23.9% | 18% | -19.0% |
| 20% | -31.3% | 18% | -27.0% |