Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf3ce…a57a sports 1023 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$99,923 (+7%) realized +$101,327 · open −$1,404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%578W / 443L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$1,423per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$17,703est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,465
7 days+$1,802
14 days+$7,231
30 days−$27,047
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$88,105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +18.5% +7.2% 70% 70% -3.6%
≤30d 164 -2.9% -12.2% 55% 55% -13.6%
≤90d 710 +10.9% +0.3% 59% 58% -3.9%
all 1021 +6.7% -3.5% 57% 56% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 56% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 55% -13.1%
15% -21.2% 48% -21.5%
20% -28.9% 38% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,837) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,121 vs −$1,264 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$1,027
Realized+$101,327
Unrealized−$1,404
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses578 / 443
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$17,703
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1021 / 1023
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,423
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1021 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 74¢ 100¢ $759 $1,025 +$267 (+35%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner 4ikibamboni 71¢ 0¢ $1,672 $1 −$1,671 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $7,128 +$2,890 +41%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,217 +$815 +67%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $208 +$325 +156%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $1,318 −$1,307 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3,283 −$3,258 -99%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $920 −$902 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $147 −$145 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $602 +$147 +24%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $274 +$165 +60%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,054 +$2,563 +36%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $1,198 −$1,189 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $434 +$170 +39%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $48 +$37 +76%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$219 +108%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $204 +$421 +206%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $207 +$94 +45%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,153 +$281 +24%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $376 +$462 +123%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $337 −$334 -99%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $149 +$75 +50%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $538 +$162 +30%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $379 +$141 +37%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $680 +$384 +56%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $756 −$748 -99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $874 −$861 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1,376 −$1,353 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,474 +$436 +30%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $114 −$112 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,835 −$2,803 -99%
Dota 2: summer bear vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $103 +$105 +101%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $7,196 +$3,949 +55%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $4,484 +$4,368 +97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $9,186 +$3,641 +40%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6,921 +$3,777 +55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,040 +$3,371 +165%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4,862 −$4,797 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,607 +$3,107 +67%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,865 +$3,539 +124%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $5,846 −$5,784 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs G-Time - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,100 +$676 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $3,428 +$3,326 +97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3,676 +$2,919 +79%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $3,162 −$3,106 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $2,408 +$1,397 +58%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $6,492 +$3,912 +60%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,841 +$2,062 +73%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $7,253 −$7,170 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $874 −$862 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,214 −$1,193 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 73¢ $310 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 70¢ $298 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 72¢ $411 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 69¢ $668 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 76¢ $241 2h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 75¢ $146 2h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 72¢ $130 2h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 73¢ $248 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $30 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $695 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 72¢ $1,005 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 74¢ $118 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 70¢ $5,310 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 59¢ $859 14h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 61¢ $358 14h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 38¢ $208 24h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 76¢ $89 27h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 78¢ $292 27h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 71¢ $785 27h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 70¢ $152 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 76¢ $649 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 76¢ $184 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 75¢ $132 27h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 74¢ $2,318 27h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Grey Trac 33¢ $379 34h
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Grey Trac 33¢ $541 34h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 49¢ $147 36h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $602 2d
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 63¢ $104 2d
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 61¢ $170 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,026.62 · official $1,026.62 (match) · 1976 history records