Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3d0…9fad crypto 382 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+4%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%152W / 230L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 57% -2.5%
≤30d 88 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 57% -2.5%
≤90d 382 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 40% -5.3%
all 382 -9.0% -17.6% 40% 40% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 40% -5.3%
10% -25.5% 40% -14.4%
15% -32.7% 40% -22.6%
20% -39.3% 37% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses152 / 230
Open positions0
Markets (closed)382 / 382
History coverage65d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 382 Trades
no open positions (225 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$11 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$34 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $64 +$43 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$6 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +102%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$11 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$63 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$13 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$4 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $67 +$37 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +128%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$5 +133%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$2 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$5 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $57 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $64 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $18 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $100 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $67 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 22h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $828.85 · official $828.85 (match) · 524 history records