Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf3d0…485d crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%26W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
crypto 27% $0
politics 16% −$23
other 9% +$3
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +0.3% -9.3% 94% 0% -8.9%
all 36 -5.4% -14.4% 72% 0% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -13.2%
10% -22.6% 0% -21.5%
15% -30.1% 0% -29.1%
20% -36.9% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses26 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage139d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $111 $111 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $131 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 9? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $104 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 7? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 24? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 21? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 17? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 14? Mar 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 13? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 11? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 10? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 7? Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $14 −$4 -25%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $28 −$4 -12%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $32 −$4 -12%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 03 $25 −$4 -14%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $31 −$4 -12%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $8 −$4 -50%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $8 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 51m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $95 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $139 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $144 13d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $144 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $131 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $131 19d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $56 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.65 · official $110.65 (match) · 143 history records