Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3d2…975c crypto 223 markets active 6d ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%124W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$39
world 1% $0
weather 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +147.0% +123.5% 50% 50% +119.8%
≤30d 4 +23.5% +11.7% 25% 25% -74.6%
≤90d 56 +3.9% -6.0% 59% 39% -20.7%
all 223 -8.3% -17.0% 56% 33% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 33% -11.5%
10% -25.0% 22% -20.0%
15% -32.2% 19% -27.7%
20% -38.9% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses124 / 99
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage158d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 223 Trades
no open positions (76 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $2 +$3 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$7 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 22 $9 +$12 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$30 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 13 $35 +$18 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 11 $3 +$6 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 07 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 01 $8 +$18 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 30 $4 +$6 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 98°F or higher on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $11 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $11 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 794 history records