trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 25 | -33.0% | -39.4% | 28% | 28% | -79.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -39.4% | 28% | -79.4% |
| 10% | -45.2% | 28% | -81.3% |
| 15% | -50.5% | 24% | -83.1% |
| 20% | -55.4% | 24% | -84.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $380 | $380 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $300 | $300 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $190 | $190 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blues vs. Maple Leafs | Feb 15 | $7 | +$6 | +85% |
| Red Wings vs. Ducks | Oct 31 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Rangers vs. Maple Leafs | Oct 16 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Penguins vs. Ducks | Oct 16 | $9 | +$6 | +75% |
| Rangers vs. Guardians | Sep 26 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Astros vs. Athletics | Sep 25 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Brewers vs. Padres | Sep 25 | $16 | +$16 | +100% |
| Buccaneers vs. Texans | Sep 23 | $4 | +$5 | +127% |
| Rays vs. White Sox | Sep 15 | $2 | +$2 | +117% |
| Marlins vs. Guardians | Aug 12 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Kevin Pollak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Aug 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Tigers | Aug 04 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Braves vs. Reds | Aug 04 | $3 | +$5 | +150% |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 09 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 07 | $4 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Mircea Geoană win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fulham wins the Premier League? | Feb 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Pistons | Feb 10 | $152 | −$152 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Timberwolves | Feb 07 | $113 | −$113 | -100% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 06 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? | Feb 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? | Feb 05 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bulls vs. Wizards | Nov 27 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Celtics | Nov 26 | $31 | +$8 | +27% |