Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3d5…dde9 crypto 487 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$618 (+9%) realized +$618 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%248W / 239L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day163.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$267
14 days−$354
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 184 -5.6% -14.6% 52% 51% -19.0%
≤30d 487 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 49% -9.1%
≤90d 487 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 49% -9.1%
all 487 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 49% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 49% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 46% -17.8%
15% -24.7% 40% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 34% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$618
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses248 / 239
Open positions0
Markets (closed)487 / 487
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day163.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 487 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$17 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$21 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $28 +$26 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$14 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$7 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$7 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $69 −$45 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$20 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$5 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$6 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$5 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$33 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$6 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records