Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3d5…412f crypto 566 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$214 (-1%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate66%372W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$368
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +12.3% +1.6% 60% 40% -8.0%
≤30d 99 +6.4% -3.7% 64% 28% -11.2%
≤90d 241 -9.1% -17.7% 61% 21% -13.5%
all 566 -5.2% -14.2% 66% 17% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 17% -10.9%
10% -22.4% 10% -19.4%
15% -29.9% 7% -27.2%
20% -36.8% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses372 / 194
Open positions0
Markets (closed)566 / 566
History coverage125d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 566 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$66 +566%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$18 +286%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$7 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$30 +568%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 03 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $31 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1640 history records