Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3da…c244 crypto 52 markets active 8h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,005 (-37%) realized −$909 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%3W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$508
other 18% −$214
politics 10% −$189
sports 5% −$51
economics 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.2%
≤30d 1 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.2%
≤90d 19 -37.1% -43.1% 5% 5% -32.4%
all 51 -54.1% -58.5% 6% 6% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.5% 6% -45.3%
10% -62.4% 6% -50.6%
15% -66.1% 6% -55.3%
20% -69.4% 4% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$909
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses3 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage187d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $128 $32 −$96 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 23 $165 −$37 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 23 $32 −$21 -65%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 17 $223 −$35 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 08 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 07 $50 −$34 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 07 $20 −$7 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on April 7? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 01 $5 −$4 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 4? Mar 31 $7 −$2 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 4? Mar 31 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 30 $257 −$86 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 3? Mar 29 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 27 $143 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 25 $55 −$7 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 25 $82 −$38 -47%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 24 $56 −$25 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 23 $75 −$22 -29%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $7 −$4 -65%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 16 $15 −$5 -33%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 09 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Mar 04 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 04 $29 −$6 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 27 $18 −$10 -58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 27 $48 −$41 -84%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 25 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 25 $30 −$25 -81%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 20 $6 −$5 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 20 $5 −$4 -67%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $118 −$48 -40%
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more? Feb 03 $90 −$61 -67%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 03 $114 −$83 -73%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $51 −$39 -75%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Feb 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Feb 03 $6 −$5 -72%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 27 $54 +$40 +74%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 26 $58 −$4 -6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January? Jan 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of January? Jan 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of January? Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of January? Jan 26 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of January? Jan 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 26 $50 +$30 +59%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Ole Miss win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Dec 15 $50 −$14 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 7h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 37h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $39 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL Yes 16¢ $139 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 56d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 56d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL Yes 29¢ $188 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? BUY Yes 33¢ $223 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? SELL Yes 61¢ $60 69d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? SELL Yes 34¢ $35 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.93 · official $31.93 (match) · 212 history records