Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf3db…772a crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate84%43W / 8L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$1
other 26% +$3
politics 8% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 +0.4% -9.1% 84% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses43 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage527d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $23 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? Dec 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 03 $27 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will another party win the second most seats in the next Canadian elec Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Cale Makar win the Hart Trophy? Mar 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $19 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Feb 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Jan 17 $16 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 28d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 31d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $8 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 62d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 91d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 93d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $19 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 151d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 182d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $23 183d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $12 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $27 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 242d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $26 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 271d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $26 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 301d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 302d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? BUY No 100¢ $28 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 364d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 395d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 396d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 100¢ $6 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.92 · official $41.92 (match) · 110 history records