Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3dc…09cd crypto 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$116 (-3%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%57W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$265
14 days−$265
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$321
finance 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -18.0% -25.8% 62% 50% -15.5%
≤30d 80 -18.0% -25.8% 62% 50% -15.5%
≤90d 85 -16.9% -24.8% 61% 49% -15.5%
all 115 -30.8% -37.4% 50% 41% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 41% -16.8%
10% -43.4% 21% -24.7%
15% -48.9% 13% -32.0%
20% -53.9% 11% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses57 / 58
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)115 / 115
History coverage119d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 23? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 23? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 17? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 23? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 16? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 17? Up 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 17? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $66 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $145 −$84 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$42 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$28 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $76 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$40 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $103 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $28 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$7 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $29 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $53 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $28 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $73 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $66 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $29 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $30 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $36 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $30 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records