Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3e4…013d weather 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$253 (-5%) realized −$271 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate45%89W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$734now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$123
7 days−$173
14 days−$206
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 33% −$74
world 28% −$117
sports 17% −$34
other 15% −$13
crypto 3% −$36
politics 2% +$2
economics 1% −$32
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -5.5% -14.5% 52% 25% -15.6%
≤30d 196 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 20% -16.4%
≤90d 196 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 20% -16.4%
all 196 -6.6% -15.5% 45% 20% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 20% -16.4%
10% -23.6% 8% -24.4%
15% -31.0% 3% -31.7%
20% -37.8% 2% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$734
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses89 / 107
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions35
Markets (closed)196 / 231
History coverage30d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? No 95¢ 95¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? No 98¢ 98¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? No 86¢ 86¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 88¢ 98¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 20? No 88¢ 100¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 92¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 92¢ 100¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $22 $24 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 94¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? No 84¢ 89¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? No 79¢ 81¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 85¢ 86¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21? No 84¢ 84¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 87¢ 86¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? No 97¢ 97¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? No 95¢ 94¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? No 90¢ 86¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 21? No 91¢ 90¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-19%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $69 +$6 +8%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $23 +$6 +24%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $23 −$6 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $22 −$7 -32%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $23 −$6 -24%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $22 −$6 -26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7 $0 -7%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $23 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$4 +16%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $23 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$9 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $43 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $25 −$6 -26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $24 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$7 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 +$2 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $24 +$6 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $23 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $24 −$3 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$2 -22%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $24 −$8 -32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $24 −$9 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $25 −$8 -30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $22 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 −$10 -42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $72 −$23 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $23 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 −$7 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $24 −$7 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $23 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 20 $17 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 −$7 -37%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 $0 +3%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $24 −$8 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $13 26m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $53 26m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 71¢ $17 42m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $21 46m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $21 46m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $7 46m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $15 46m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? SELL No 56¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $17 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $67 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 81¢ $7 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) SELL Curaçao 74¢ $18 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi SELL Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi SELL Yes 37¢ $16 2h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi SELL Yes 40¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 90¢ $22 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 77¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21? BUY No 84¢ $23 4h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $22 4h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL No 68¢ $18 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 79¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 86¢ $45 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 87¢ $23 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $23 4h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 80¢ $23 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.80 · official $733.80 (match) · 653 history records