Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3e5…6703 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$6
other 22% −$8
politics 16% $0
sports 15% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -3.3% -12.5% 15% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 21 -2.6% -11.9% 19% 0% -10.7%
all 46 -1.9% -11.3% 22% 2% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -10.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage272d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $29 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $29 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -26%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $33 −$3 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $18 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $28 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $18 −$8 -45%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 02 $28 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Oct 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 02 $21 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 -11%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 01 $3 $0 +4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $32 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $30 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $8 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $22 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records