Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:21:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3e6…f265 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-6%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$17
sports 18% −$63
crypto 4% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 50% -29.9%
≤30d 6 -34.7% -40.9% 33% 33% -58.4%
≤90d 75 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 43% -16.3%
all 75 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 43% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 43% -16.3%
10% -30.6% 36% -24.3%
15% -37.3% 32% -31.6%
20% -43.4% 29% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage78d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$17 +180%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $50 +$52 +105%
Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $26 +$23 +89%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $10 +$8 +82%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -96%
AD Municipal Pérez Zeledón vs. CS Herediano: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $7 +$4 +65%
Will AD Municipal Pérez Zeledón vs. CS Herediano end in a draw? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Deportivo Saprissa vs. Guadalupe FC end in a draw? Apr 22 $25 −$24 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $10 +$25 +249%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5 Apr 22 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will CS Cartaginés vs. AD San Carlos end in a draw? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Apr 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will AD Municipal Liberia win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $19 +$16 +86%
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton Apr 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $2 −$1 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $24 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $9 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $29 22d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 40d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 43d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 45d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 45d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 47d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 49d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 49d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 50d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 50d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 50d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 51d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 51d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 51d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 53d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 54d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 54d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 55d
Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-04-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 55d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 55d
Will Deportivo Saprissa win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.18 · official $26.18 (match) · 140 history records