Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3e9…a820 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-13%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$4
crypto 9% −$4
sports 5% +$4
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -16.2% -24.2% 20% 20% -19.7%
≤30d 20 -16.2% -24.2% 20% 20% -19.7%
≤90d 20 -16.2% -24.2% 20% 20% -19.7%
all 20 -16.2% -24.2% 20% 20% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 20% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 20% -27.4%
15% -38.1% 20% -34.4%
20% -44.1% 20% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +418%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 9m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 20h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.86 · official $8.86 (match) · 39 history records