Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf3ea…3039 sports 556 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$330 (+1%) realized +$294 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%308W / 235L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3,823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$255
14 days−$324
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$653
other 21% +$557
world 16% −$7
politics 15% +$224
crypto 8% +$238
economics 3% −$165
tech 3% −$27
finance 1% +$37
culture 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.5% -37.2% 40% 40% -67.4%
≤30d 129 -8.6% -17.3% 60% 48% -22.5%
≤90d 264 -26.7% -33.7% 46% 36% -32.8%
all 543 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 44% -9.1%
10% -24.6% 36% -17.8%
15% -31.9% 26% -25.8%
20% -38.6% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$3,823
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses308 / 235
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)543 / 556
History coverage602d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $1,176 $1,202 +$26 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $882 $975 +$93 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $465 $491 +$26 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $412 $418 +$6 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $306 $325 +$19 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 95¢ $150 $173 +$23 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 80¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 95¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 64¢ 68¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 60¢ 30¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 71¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $49 +$53 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $295 −$290 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $30 +$12 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 10 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $100 +$25 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $220 +$19 +8%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $32 +$29 +92%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $46 +$58 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 30 $3 +$1 +46%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $20 +$14 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $30 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 25 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 25 $19 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 25 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $27 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 25 $8 −$8 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 24 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 24 $7 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $30 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $20 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 7d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 7d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 47¢ $49 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $12 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $20 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $20 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $100 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $5 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $20 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $60 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $100 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 20d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $278 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,823.04 · official $3,823.04 (match) · 1808 history records