Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf3fa…d2e7
sports · 643 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$200
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses256 / 319
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions67
Markets (closed)575 / 643
History coverage920d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 67 History 575 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$7
14 days−$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 61¢ 88¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 79¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 35¢ 43¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-44%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 75¢ 71¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 27¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 61¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 49¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 76¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 32¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 67¢ 48¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 68¢ 61¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 70¢ 74¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 71¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $3 $0 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +9%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -12%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -65%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $29 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 07 $9 +$2 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $11 −$3 -29%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $4 −$2 -59%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 -2%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 05 $4 −$2 -55%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 04 $9 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 04 $1 $0 -13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$95
politics 24% −$32
sports 21% −$90
crypto 7% −$1
world 4% −$2
economics 3% +$1
finance 1% −$3
tech 0% +$15
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 18m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 18m
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 39¢ $2 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $4 7h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $4 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $3 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 7h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $3 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $2 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 15h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 68¢ $3 18h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 77¢ $1 19h
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 47¢ $2 19h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 46¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $1 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 60¢ $1 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $1 19h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $1 19h
Will Neymar score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $1 19h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 34¢ $0 43h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 34¢ $2 44h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.8% -6.1% 55% 45% -4.7%
≤30d 188 +10.4% -0.1% 44% 35% -8.9%
≤90d 519 +4.7% -5.3% 46% 41% -7.7%
all 575 +2.4% -7.3% 45% 39% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 39% -9.5%
10% -16.2% 34% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 30% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 25% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.25 · official $199.32 (match) · 1695 history records