Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F4 0xf400…2f56 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-1%) realized −$143 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days+$745
14 days−$265
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$748
sports 34% −$1,129
crypto 5% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.3% -3.9% 73% 53% +0.4%
≤30d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 47% -11.8%
≤90d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 47% -11.8%
all 32 -1.1% -10.5% 59% 47% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 47% -11.8%
10% -19.1% 44% -20.2%
15% -26.9% 41% -27.9%
20% -34.1% 34% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$240 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2,303
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage14d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $1,112 $1,103 −$9 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1,003 $1,000 −$2 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $202 $200 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $941 +$661 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $415 −$407 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,014 +$10 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $323 −$319 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $65 +$35 +55%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $61 +$59 +97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $129 −$127 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $267 +$133 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $369 +$10 +3%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $511 +$438 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $706 +$44 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,012 +$528 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $254 +$55 +22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $236 +$124 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $100 +$84 +84%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $292 −$288 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $126 −$124 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $56 +$54 +96%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $263 +$207 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 −$232 -46%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $508 +$12 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $76 −$1 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $404 +$176 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$14 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $187 +$110 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$35 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,026 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $208 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $941 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $415 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $1,024 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $323 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $129 2d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 50¢ $61 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $65 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $267 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $7 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $371 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $369 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,014 5d
Uruguay leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $949 5d
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $500 5d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $511 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $46 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $125 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $474 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $706 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,012 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $116 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $193 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 90¢ $360 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $186 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,303.27 · official $2,303.73 (match) · 137 history records