Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf40a…ea0a other 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (187 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,957 (+9%) realized +$8,957 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate84%151W / 28L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day186.6pace
Fees−$526est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,912
sports 42% +$1,981
crypto 2% −$26
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (187 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -12.1% -20.5% 68% 15% -10.4%
≤30d 179 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 9% -8.6%
≤90d 179 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 9% -8.6%
all 179 -1.5% -10.9% 84% 9% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 9% -8.6%
10% -19.4% 2% -17.3%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 1% -25.3%
20% -34.4% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$855) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$208 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,957
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses151 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$526
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 168
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$599
Trades / day186.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07? Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $1,087 −$1,087 -100%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-13? Jun 17 $59 −$148 -252%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? Jun 17 $18 −$206 -1136%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-18? Jun 17 $200 −$193 -96%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $463 −$356 -77%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $384 −$1,184 -309%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $32 +$86 +268%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 17 $340 −$340 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $591 −$591 -100%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-05-04? Jun 17 $44 −$47 -107%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $3,517 −$122 -4%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,613 +$94 +6%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,194 −$74 -6%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $500 +$16 +3%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,125 +$542 +26%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,034 +$95 +9%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $661 +$27 +4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,337 +$496 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$3 -3%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,217 +$106 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $603 +$104 +17%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $753 −$94 -12%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5,339 +$449 +8%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $573 +$30 +5%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,612 +$118 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,805 +$71 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $970 +$39 +4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,255 −$545 -43%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,000 +$44 +4%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,082 −$401 -37%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,904 +$166 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $250 +$7 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $249 +$2 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 −$5 -2%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $651 +$9 +1%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1,545 +$163 +11%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2,016 +$332 +16%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $648 +$24 +4%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $867 +$64 +7%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $300 +$7 +2%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $351 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $353 +$7 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $801 +$73 +9%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $250 +$8 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,143 +$47 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $1,116 34m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $85 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 97¢ $100 40m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 87¢ $318 49m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 76¢ $100 50m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 76¢ $60 50m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 77¢ $34 50m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 75¢ $81 50m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 74¢ $3 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $99 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 48¢ $38 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 65¢ $53 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,608 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records