Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf410…ca73 other 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$105,094 (+18%) realized +$105,161 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%64W / 45L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$2,574per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$7,278est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$70,890now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,820
7 days−$5,716
14 days+$113,343
30 days+$115,585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$102,328
other 20% +$4,274
crypto 1% −$579
world 0% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.5% -22.6% 44% 38% -32.4%
≤30d 41 -9.6% -18.2% 54% 37% +26.2%
≤90d 104 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 39% +10.9%
all 109 -4.6% -13.7% 59% 39% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 39% +10.8%
10% -21.9% 35% +0.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.5% 29% -9.5%
20% -36.4% 23% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$3,968) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,899 vs −$1,764 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$70,890
Realized+$105,161
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses64 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$7,278
Open positions119
Markets (closed)109 / 228
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$2,574
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 119 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $17,724 $17,654 −$70 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $11,806 $11,958 +$152 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 40¢ $6,038 $3,883 −$2,155 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1,800 $2,220 +$420 (+23%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $2,595 $2,170 −$426 (-16%)
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $1,832 $1,775 −$57 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 99¢ $600 $1,753 +$1,153 (+192%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 34¢ $1,510 $1,537 +$27 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $1,407 $1,409 +$2 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $962 $978 +$16 (+2%)
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $960 $972 +$12 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 52¢ $926 $850 −$75 (-8%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 50¢ 84¢ $500 $845 +$345 (+69%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $821 $821 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 88¢ $780 $794 +$14 (+2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $711 $776 +$65 (+9%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 63¢ $761 $760 −$2 (-0%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $720 $759 +$39 (+5%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 70¢ $691 $737 +$46 (+7%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 69¢ 69¢ $709 $708 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $646 $664 +$18 (+3%)
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $682 $663 −$19 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 64¢ $640 $640 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 55¢ $631 $637 +$6 (+1%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 67¢ $578 $625 +$47 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $174 +$426 +245%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $133 −$131 -98%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6,255 −$6,245 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,980 −$980 -20%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $1 +$2 +113%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,431 −$1,431 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7,288 +$3,685 +51%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $121 −$118 -97%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $0 $0 +50%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $314 +$13 +4%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +64%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $620 +$380 +61%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $660 −$660 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $97,518 +$83,399 +86%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $114,719 +$40,740 +36%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,986 +$14 +1%
Will there be exactly 7 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $47 +$15 +32%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $11,841 +$1,800 +15%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $12,729 +$3,857 +30%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $128 +$3 +2%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 13 $1,234 −$957 -78%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $1,917 +$115 +6%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $4,138 −$2,968 -72%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 08 $7,529 −$7,047 -94%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 08 $2,945 +$88 +3%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 07 $917 −$89 -10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $4,520 −$1,220 -27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $391 −$391 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 05 $0 $0 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $5,040 +$5,258 +104%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV May 31 $21 +$19 +92%
Knicks vs. Spurs May 31 $1,280 +$20 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $65 +$169 +261%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $820 −$820 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $1,979 +$831 +42%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $465 +$35 +8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 25 $11,588 −$100 -1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 18 $3,438 −$2,178 -63%
Spread: Pistons (-11.5) May 18 $588 +$226 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $150 +$4 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1,199 −$208 -17%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $6,800 +$3,200 +47%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $16,304 −$42 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $2,036 −$1,123 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $8 5m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 8m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 8m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $64 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $5 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $5 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $93 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $11 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $5 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $100 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $5 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $1 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $5 15m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $50 15m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $11 15m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 50¢ $145 15m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 44m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 44m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 44m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 50m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 50m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 50m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 51m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $81 53m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $210 54m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 54m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 56m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 56m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70,890.37 · official $70,890.30 (match) · 3500 history records