Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf412…3270 crypto 95 markets active 4d ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$979 (-5%) realized −$979 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 58L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,322
14 days−$3,096
30 days−$1,621
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,932
sports 0% −$33
other 0% −$4
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.7% -40.0% 25% 25% -34.0%
≤30d 58 +8.8% -1.6% 55% 53% -17.5%
≤90d 65 +4.7% -5.3% 52% 51% -17.6%
all 95 -11.6% -20.0% 39% 38% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 38% -18.8%
10% -27.7% 36% -26.5%
15% -34.7% 34% -33.6%
20% -41.1% 33% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$85 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$979
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage274d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $567 −$559 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $300 +$258 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 13 $7,190 −$1,497 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $541 −$525 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $1,699 +$261 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $940 −$736 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $302 −$240 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $53 −$27 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $1,840 −$154 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $66 +$17 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $1,183 +$302 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 03 $151 −$56 -37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,047 +$156 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $59 +$43 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 31 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET May 30 $669 +$451 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $58 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $364 +$669 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $27 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $106 −$71 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5AM ET May 29 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? May 28 $179 +$180 +101%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 28 $68 +$88 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10AM ET May 27 $26 +$45 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET May 27 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET May 27 $26 +$38 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $16 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $21 +$27 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7AM ET May 25 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 25 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 25 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 79¢ $567 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $60 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $108 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $45 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 9¢ $274 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $77 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $464 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $430 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,027 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $86 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $998 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $181 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $185 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $2,371 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $364 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 370 history records