Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf413…68ba sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,614 (-6%) realized −$1,579 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate52%46W / 43L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$282est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$801
14 days−$897
30 days−$902
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,437
world 2% +$5
other 1% +$4
tech 0% +$9
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 12% -24.6%
≤30d 22 -4.4% -13.5% 64% 23% -16.4%
≤90d 89 -12.6% -20.9% 52% 28% -17.7%
all 89 -12.6% -20.9% 52% 28% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 28% -17.7%
10% -28.5% 21% -25.5%
15% -35.4% 17% -32.7%
20% -41.8% 15% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$130 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized−$1,579
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses46 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$282
Open positions5
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage76d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 79¢ 88¢ $288 $323 +$35 (+12%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 59¢ 100¢ $147 $250 +$102 (+69%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 80¢ 100¢ $97 $120 +$23 (+24%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ 0¢ $172 $0 −$172 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $258 +$42 +16%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $838 −$310 -37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,043 −$97 -9%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $695 +$5 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $906 −$6 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $244 +$4 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $891 +$19 +2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $891 −$459 -52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $891 +$9 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,017 −$92 -9%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1,020 −$20 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $1,001 −$1 -0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $992 +$8 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $990 +$10 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1,010 −$25 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $16 +$4 +22%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 27 $9 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? May 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 03 $20 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 29 $10 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 15 $366 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 15 $138 −$138 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $225 −$225 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 15 $123 +$177 +144%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $232 +$273 +117%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $54 −$8 -15%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $920 −$590 -64%
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $290 −$290 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 14 $112 −$2 -2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Apr 14 $340 +$160 +47%
LoL: GIANTX vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $425 −$423 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $215 +$34 +16%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $195 +$55 +28%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $100 +$150 +150%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $415 +$85 +20%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 12 $405 −$120 -30%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 12 $574 +$258 +45%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 12 $320 +$180 +56%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 12 $54 −$54 -99%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 12 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 11 $170 +$330 +194%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $160 +$340 +212%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $187 −$187 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $67 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $68 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $24 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $68 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $300 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $199 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $76 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $97 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $16 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 82¢ $33 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 79¢ $47 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $32 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $13 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $13 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $26 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $13 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $13 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $26 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $31 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $13 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $77 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $796 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 58¢ $58 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $345 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 62¢ $314 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $121 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.98 · official $733.62 · 450 history records