Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf415…17a3 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$272 (-7%) realized −$271 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$358
7 days−$298
14 days−$301
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$851
sports 20% +$549
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.3% -39.7% 40% 40% -30.9%
≤30d 27 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 44% -17.2%
≤90d 27 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 44% -17.2%
all 27 +6.0% -4.1% 48% 44% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 44% -17.2%
10% -13.2% 41% -25.1%
15% -21.6% 41% -32.4%
20% -29.3% 30% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$129 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$271
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage12d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $169 $168 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$21 -20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$137 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$95 +93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $68 +$63 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$398 +388%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $79 −$77 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $169 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $81 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $65 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $68 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 8d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 10d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 11d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $79 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.61 · official $167.61 (match) · 59 history records