Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:44:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf418…d0d0 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized −$9 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%29W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$3
world 21% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +125.1% +103.7% 100% 100% +103.7%
≤30d 1 +125.1% +103.7% 100% 100% +103.7%
≤90d 55 -21.4% -28.9% 53% 29% -13.3%
all 55 -21.4% -28.9% 53% 29% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.9% 29% -13.3%
10% -35.7% 20% -21.6%
15% -41.9% 18% -29.2%
20% -47.6% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses29 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage68d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 30¢ $10 $43 +$33 (+326%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $30 +$38 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 14 $4 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 14 $3 $0 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 14 $7 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 14 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 14 $16 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 14 $25 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$3 +174%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 14 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$12 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 13 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $15 −$13 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $68 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $5 45h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $10 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $20 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 60d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 60d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.56 · official $42.56 (match) · 146 history records