Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf418…95a3
crypto · 262 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$982 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$759 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$759
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses95 / 177
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 262
History coverage28d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day117.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 272 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$21 -633%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 26 $53 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 26 $52 −$31 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 26 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 26 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 26 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $104 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 26 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 26 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 26 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 26 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 26 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 26 $51 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 26 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 26 $96 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 26 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 24 $115 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 24 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 24 $52 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$693
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -42.7% -48.2% 19% 14% -36.6%
≤30d 272 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 10% -11.6%
≤90d 272 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 10% -11.6%
all 272 -1.2% -10.6% 35% 10% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover117.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 10% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 4% -20.0%
15% -27.0% 3% -27.8%
20% -34.1% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records