Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf41c…ba2f world 308 markets active 3h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$851 (-6%) realized −$812 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%135W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$209
14 days−$168
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$205
politics 19% −$180
other 18% −$367
crypto 5% −$41
tech 3% +$38
sports 1% −$145
finance 1% +$5
economics 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.1% -16.9% 39% 22% -15.0%
≤30d 93 -5.1% -14.1% 45% 24% -13.5%
≤90d 191 +2.6% -7.2% 49% 32% -14.1%
all 302 -0.0% -9.6% 45% 30% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 30% -15.0%
10% -18.2% 23% -23.1%
15% -26.1% 19% -30.6%
20% -33.4% 13% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$812
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses135 / 167
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)302 / 308
History coverage407d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 52¢ 36¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-32%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-47%)
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? No 15¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $105 −$35 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Jun 16 $52 −$15 -28%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $201 −$2 -1%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $61 −$15 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $70 +$17 +24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 15 $31 −$8 -27%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 15 $60 −$16 -27%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $214 +$3 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $70 −$24 -34%
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +5%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 14 $101 −$4 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $135 −$38 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $80 −$13 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $95 +$41 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $217 +$85 +39%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $489 −$54 -11%
Will USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on June 30? Jun 14 $103 −$31 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $50 −$13 -27%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $363 −$18 -5%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 13 $94 −$29 -31%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $54 +$11 +20%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 13 $40 +$43 +107%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $94 +$61 +65%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $21 −$16 -77%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 12 $74 +$7 +9%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 11 $32 −$14 -44%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $74 −$19 -26%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 09 $70 −$32 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $84 +$8 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $65 +$1 +2%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 07 $29 +$14 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 07 $30 +$3 +10%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 06 $49 −$4 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 06 $41 −$7 -18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 06 $33 −$3 -8%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-J Jun 06 $36 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $99 +$13 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $43 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $15 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $16 3h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY No 15¢ $10 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $70 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 22h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 56¢ $17 23h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $19 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 26h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $36 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 26h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $33 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 27h
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 47h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $26 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 47h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 47h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $9 47h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 47h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 47h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $28 2d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 2d
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? SELL Yes 61¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.72 · official $125.61 (match) · 1713 history records