Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F4 0xf41d…6d8f crypto 1535 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,878 (-25%) realized −$2,877 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%802W / 731L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$59
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,411
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -49.2% -54.1% 31% 31% -56.2%
≤30d 39 -49.2% -54.1% 31% 31% -56.2%
≤90d 1533 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 52% -20.5%
all 1533 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 52% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 52% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 52% -28.1%
15% -33.9% 52% -35.0%
20% -40.4% 52% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$2,877
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses802 / 731
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1533 / 1535
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 61¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 12 $4 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.14 · official $2.28 (match) · 3500 history records