Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf41d…6bff crypto 117 markets active 4d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-11%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%67W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28
14 days−$75
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$77
other 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -12.9% -21.2% 74% 45% -18.2%
≤30d 117 -20.0% -27.6% 57% 41% -22.2%
≤90d 117 -20.0% -27.6% 57% 41% -22.2%
all 117 -20.0% -27.6% 57% 41% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 41% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 26% -29.6%
15% -40.9% 13% -36.4%
20% -46.7% 9% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses67 / 50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 311 history records