Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf41e…2dae
world · 53 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage317d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 0 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $19 −$3 -14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $23 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $41 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $5 −$3 -58%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 04 $4 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Peter Casey win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $2 $0 -22%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $60 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $11 $0 +5%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 02 $4 $0 -2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 01 $11 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% $0
politics 22% $0
other 21% +$1
sports 7% $0
finance 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 10h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 45h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $23 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $19 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $18 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $14 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $17 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -0.4% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -0.4% -9.8% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 53 -1.5% -10.9% 28% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records