Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf421…efce weather 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (222 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$460 (+5%) realized +$545 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%35W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day221.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$780now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (222 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 15% -13.0%
≤30d 165 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 15% -13.0%
≤90d 165 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 15% -13.0%
all 165 -1.1% -10.5% 21% 15% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover221.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 15% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 14% -21.3%
15% -26.9% 12% -28.9%
20% -34.0% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$21 · ×3.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$780
Realized+$545
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses35 / 130
Open positions14
Markets (closed)165 / 168
History coverage5d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day221.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 87¢ 98¢ $431 $487 +$56 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 20? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $199 $256 +$57 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? No 41¢ 18¢ $72 $32 −$39 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $49 $1 −$48 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$12 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 20? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? No 17¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 20? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? No 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 17? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $32 −$16 -48%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $17 −$15 -90%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $34 −$30 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $87 +$22 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $322 −$40 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $156 +$33 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 −$14 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 −$5 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 −$42 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 −$29 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 −$34 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $18 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $38 −$27 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $18 −$15 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 19 $181 +$43 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 19 $7 −$3 -36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $85 −$60 -70%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 19 $89 +$29 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$6 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 −$17 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 −$7 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$10 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$12 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 20? Jun 19 $568 +$111 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $46 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 90¢ $104 29m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $157 30m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 30¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 30¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 30¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 30¢ $21 56m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 28¢ $2 56m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 40¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 66¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 61¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 60¢ $94 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 61¢ $66 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 62¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 88¢ $89 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 25¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY Yes 67¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $779.92 · official $779.92 (match) · 1047 history records