Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf421…cff4 sports 184 markets active 3h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44,749 (-10%) realized −$44,752 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%81W / 102L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,448per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4,039est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,227
7 days−$9,270
14 days−$36,859
30 days−$18,170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$24,777
other 42% −$26,924
world 0% −$1,250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -9.5% -18.2% 46% 43% -19.6%
≤30d 130 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 45% -14.6%
≤90d 183 -10.1% -18.6% 44% 44% -20.4%
all 183 -10.1% -18.6% 44% 44% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 44% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 44% -28.0%
15% -33.5% 44% -35.0%
20% -40.0% 44% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$3,050) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,340 vs −$2,377 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$44,752
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses81 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$4,039
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage44d
Avg bet$2,448
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $298 $301 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5,209 −$5,132 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10,153 +$10,255 +101%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 17 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,079 +$5,559 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3,044 −$3,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $964 −$950 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4,421 +$3,805 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,052 −$3,000 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,209 +$2,992 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5,046 −$561 -11%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10,375 −$5,014 -48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,635 −$4,572 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $248 +$189 +76%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5,078 +$52 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $3,041 +$2,514 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $406 +$363 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $1,218 +$1,182 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,028 +$1,747 +86%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3,551 −$3,500 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2,033 +$2,411 +119%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $3,245 −$3,200 -99%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $183 −$180 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8,772 −$8,650 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $812 +$727 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $14,404 −$14,200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,320 +$1,333 +101%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,012 +$695 +69%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $4,059 +$3,784 +93%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $406 −$400 -99%
Fukushima United FC vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $508 +$492 +97%
Will Zweigen Kanazawa win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3,246 −$3,200 -99%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,029 −$166 -8%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $7,718 −$7,597 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $2,538 −$2,500 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3,896 −$3,830 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $2,032 +$2,315 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $4,465 +$4,163 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $3,660 +$4,521 +124%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1,813 +$1,906 +105%
O'Higgins FC vs. Everton de Viña del Mar: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1,218 +$1,231 +101%
Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,533 +$1,526 +100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1,278 +$1,145 +90%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $1,898 +$1,917 +101%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3,276 +$3,180 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $134 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5,075 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $303 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $5,076 16h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $5,076 16h
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $2,032 18h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $304 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $5,079 26h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $3,044 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $964 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $10 45h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4,421 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $1,017 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,018 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,017 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3,209 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $2,007 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5,297 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $3,040 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $4,635 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $5,130 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5,078 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $248 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 50¢ $5,130 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 48¢ $5,078 4d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $3,551 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3,041 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,218 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 52¢ $406 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.10 · official $301.10 (match) · 329 history records