Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F4 0xf422…ea56 crypto 292 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,901 (-1%) realized −$1,888 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate61%218W / 140L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$941per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 140d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,733
finance 2% −$619
other 1% +$146
tech 0% +$36
sports 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -71.8% -74.5% 9% 7% -91.5%
≤30d 87 -61.3% -65.0% 22% 9% -75.7%
≤90d 122 -48.2% -53.1% 35% 11% -34.2%
all 358 -21.4% -28.9% 61% 7% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 7% -11.6%
10% -35.7% 3% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -41.9% 2% -27.8%
20% -47.6% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$988) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$119 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$1,888
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses218 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)358 / 292
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$941
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $131 $131 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Yes 84¢ 64¢ $42 $32 −$10 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$4 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 1? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $176 −$383 -218%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Jun 22 $16 +$6 +38%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $468 −$468 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-10? Jun 22 $104 −$138 -132%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 4? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 19? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $371 −$371 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 15? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 10? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 17? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 1? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 5? Jun 22 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 24? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 1? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 7? Jun 22 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 13? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 11? Jun 22 $23 −$20 -85%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-01-08? Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $988 −$988 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 7? Jun 22 $2 +$3 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 20? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 13? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 19? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-10? Jun 22 $2 −$509 -25416%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 9? Jun 22 $24 −$17 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Rockets Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jun 22 $24 −$18 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 15? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 14? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 16? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 17? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 5? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 4? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 9? Jun 22 $26 −$22 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 24? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 15? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 14? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 13? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 6? Jun 22 $6 +$58 +933%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $129 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $57 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $85 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 91¢ $92 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $197 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $99 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 96¢ $96 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? BUY No 80¢ $40 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $178 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $45 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $53 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $58 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $39 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $81 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.88 · official $188.82 (match) · 3500 history records