Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf422…636d crypto 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$164 (-17%) realized −$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate69%36W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$15
politics 24% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 17% -11.4%
≤30d 52 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 17% -11.4%
≤90d 52 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 17% -11.4%
all 52 -3.4% -12.6% 69% 17% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 17% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 6% -19.8%
15% -28.6% 2% -27.6%
20% -35.6% 2% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses36 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records