Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf422…078f finance 28 markets active 14h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-32%) realized −$70 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 56% −$105
world 19% −$21
sports 16% +$50
other 4% −$1
politics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -33.8% -40.1% 6% 6% -6.7%
≤30d 18 -33.8% -40.1% 6% 6% -6.7%
≤90d 19 -37.3% -43.2% 5% 5% -43.0%
all 19 -37.3% -43.2% 5% 5% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 5% -43.0%
10% -48.7% 5% -48.5%
15% -53.6% 5% -53.5%
20% -58.2% 5% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$7 · ×7.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage40d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 23¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-19%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -35%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 16 $32 −$16 -51%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 +$56 +388%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $28 −$14 -48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of May 4 2026? May 07 $77 −$74 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes $2 13h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY Yes $1 13h
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13h
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes $2 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes $2 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes $1 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes $2 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL Yes $3 13h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? BUY Yes $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $26 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up $1 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes $3 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? BUY Yes $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? BUY Yes $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 62 history records