Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf423…0ba0 crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%55W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day86.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 30% -12.3%
≤30d 94 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 30% -12.3%
≤90d 94 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 30% -12.3%
all 94 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 30% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 30% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 12% -20.7%
15% -33.5% 6% -28.4%
20% -40.0% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses55 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day86.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 466 history records