Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:26:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf42a…4b3c sports 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,693 (+7%) realized +$7,735 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%178W / 133L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$757est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$490
7 days+$1,075
14 days+$3,755
30 days+$6,854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$6,429
other 2% +$290
world 0% +$96
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +10.0% -0.5% 55% 36% -7.4%
≤30d 311 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 44% -4.2%
≤90d 311 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 44% -4.2%
all 311 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 44% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 44% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 28% -13.4%
15% -27.6% 16% -21.7%
20% -34.7% 11% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$90 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$7,735
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses178 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$757
Open positions1
Markets (closed)311 / 312
History coverage29d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 19¢ $77 $35 −$42 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 18 $13 +$2 +14%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $46 +$54 +117%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 18 $133 +$8 +6%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 Jun 18 $116 +$84 +72%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 Jun 18 $82 −$79 -96%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 18 $23 +$7 +29%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $383 +$120 +31%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $209 +$41 +20%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $462 +$288 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $78 +$6 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $82 −$44 -54%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,066 −$48 -4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,583 +$79 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $25 −$24 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $502 −$502 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $435 −$30 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $706 −$23 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $82 +$28 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4,332 +$377 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $66 +$7 +11%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $46 −$41 -88%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $1,592 +$152 +10%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $1,103 +$95 +9%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $23 −$18 -78%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $15 +$37 +238%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $14 +$6 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $636 +$114 +18%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $942 +$554 +59%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $11 −$8 -73%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $9 +$90 +979%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $49 −$35 -72%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $76 +$24 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $776 +$282 +36%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3,566 +$310 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 SELL Over $3 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 88¢ $13 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 44¢ $44 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 94¢ $11 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 96¢ $39 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 94¢ $36 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 SELL Under $6 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 93¢ $9 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 93¢ $9 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 93¢ $28 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 3h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 BUY Over 58¢ $115 3h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 3h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 53¢ $0 3h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 53¢ $98 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $11 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $6 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $11 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 3h
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY Chicago Sky 69¢ $7 3h
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY Chicago Sky 80¢ $7 3h
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY Chicago Sky 80¢ $1 3h
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) BUY Chicago Sky 80¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.32 · official $35.36 (match) · 1271 history records