Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf432…52ae crypto 784 markets active 0h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-1%) realized −$77 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate63%493W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$7
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$55
other 17% +$28
world 2% −$43
politics 1% −$30
sports 1% −$7
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.8% -10.3% 78% 27% -10.3%
≤30d 168 +4.2% -5.7% 80% 30% -9.5%
≤90d 553 -24.6% -31.8% 55% 23% -14.6%
all 781 -8.0% -16.7% 63% 24% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 24% -10.7%
10% -24.7% 17% -19.3%
15% -32.0% 13% -27.1%
20% -38.7% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$77
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses493 / 288
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)781 / 784
History coverage344d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 781 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 99¢ 93¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET Down 35¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $80 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $34 +$26 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $34 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $300 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$8 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9AM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 17 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 36m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $52 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $34 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $22 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $13 26h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.27 · official $50.48 (match) · 2464 history records