Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf432…1a8a crypto 75 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-22%) realized −$9 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%48W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day71.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$13
politics 22% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 49% -13.3%
≤30d 74 -10.9% -19.4% 65% 42% -15.3%
≤90d 74 -10.9% -19.4% 65% 42% -15.3%
all 74 -10.9% -19.4% 65% 42% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 42% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 26% -23.4%
15% -34.2% 16% -30.8%
20% -40.6% 9% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses48 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day71.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $54 $6 −$48 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -86%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -49%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.88 · official $5.88 (match) · 279 history records