Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

F4 0xf435…fa11 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown65%max

Avg bet$4per market

Trades / day43.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-12.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-3.1%	-12.3%	65%	45%	-2.4%
≤30d	20	-3.1%	-12.3%	65%	45%	-2.4%
≤90d	20	-3.1%	-12.3%	65%	45%	-2.4%
all	20	-3.1%	-12.3%	65%	45%	-2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover43.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-12.3%	45%	-2.4%
10% ← realistic here	-20.7%	40%	-11.8%
15%	-28.4%	20%	-20.3%
20%	-35.4%	5%	-28.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

31% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$4

Trades / day43.0

Drawdown65%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	83¢	82¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 16	$12	+$2	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 16	$12	$0	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 16	$7	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 16	$7	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 16	$4	+$2	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 16	$9	+$1	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$7	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	SELL Down	83¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	89¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Down	84¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	SELL Down	4¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	SELL Up	70¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Up	75¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	SELL Up	6¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	SELL Down	87¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$3	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$3	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.99 (match) · 57 history records